Dear CCI Friends,

Based solely on observations from the sidelines, the world appears to be going mad.  Consider recent assertions from Europe that Alexander Navalny was assassinated by Russians using Ecuadorian frog venom or the Trump administration’s suggestion to Iran that if it would just surrender and demilitarize in advance there wouldn’t have to be a war.  “You can’t make this stuff up” and “Where are the grown ups??” are now the commentariat’s favorite tag lines.

But it is Europe frantically ginning itself up for war with Russia, the hysterical cry of “The Russians are coming, the Russins are coming!”  that is the biggest conundrum. Two astute commentators below give us their views on what one calls ‘mass strategic irrationality.’

“The Mental Harm and Political Danger of Hate Propaganda”

“The European public appears almost numb. Calls from EU member states to explore extending the French nuclear umbrella — and possibly the British one — to create a European nuclear deterrent have produced no mass public reaction. The taboo has eroded. Nuclear weapons are now discussed with the casual language of “capabilities,” “coverage,” and “strategic autonomy.”

The irony is grim. This is not the confidence of a secure society. It is the recklessness of a society that no longer understands risk.”

https://leonvermeulen.substack.com/p/europe-is-sleepwalking-toward-war

Is Europe Capable of Diplomacy?

https://glenndiesen.substack.com/p/ian-proud-economic-reset-with-russia

As always, we look forward to your thoughts.

The Center for Citizen Initiatives

Dear CCI Friends,

While we wait with bated breath (again) to learn whether we will launch into a new war – and spend our spare time pondering what national security threat Iran poses to the US – the tragedy in Ukraine continues.  It would seem logical that the attempted assassination of General Alekseev plus the attack on Putin’s residence at Valdai would aggravate any possibilities for peace.  

But most of what we see and read is speculation.  Gilbert Doctorow is speculating that the attack on Alekseev was an MI6 operation.  Possible, reasonable, likely?  The fact that the UK was responsible for scuttling a Ukraine-Russia peace agreement in 2022 – one that would have left Ukraine in a far better position than it finds itself in today – gives Mr. Doctorow’s analysis weight.  Please let us know what you think.  Relevant portions of the video below begin at minute 16.

Missing Link in Assassination Attempt Probably Sitting in London

https://gilbertdoctorow.substack.com/p/the-missing-link-in-the-assassination?

On the other hand, some things in the ongoing Ukraine saga are not speculation; its history for example.  Some of our readers clock the Ukraine tragedy as beginning in 2022, when Russia invaded, others point to 2014, when the civil war broke out.  But what if it goes back much further?  When Ukraine separated from the Soviet Union it had the most vibrant economy in Eastern Europe.  It was far richer in natural resources than any European nation and it had an experienced workforce, sophisticated industries, and a well-educated population.  What happened?  How did all of that wealth result in it becoming the poorest, most corrupt country on the European continent?  What if the West’s passionate involvement in the war is more than a desire to ‘weaken Russia?’

Larry Johnson took a quick look at the situation in June of 2022, and came up with a quick and compelling read on the basic statistics.  Take a look, friends, and weep for Ukraine.

Why the West Lusts After Ukraine

https://www.freedomdefenseresourcecenter.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Why-the-West-Lusts-After-Ukraine.pdf

Sincerely,
The Center for Citizen Initiatives

Dear CCI Friends and Colleagues,

We would like to bring to the attention of CCI readers an important and thoughtful article written by Scott Ritter in response to Sy Hersh’s recent commentary about Russia and its economy and  leadership. Hersh’s article is available on the web in case people want to read it.

An informed dialogue has always been CCI’s tradition ever since its founding. Scott is taking the position that Sy Hersh’s sources in US intelligence are providing self-serving ‘intelligence’ that is not advancing the cause of peace. As informed readers, you can be the judge of what Scott is saying.

When Sharon Tennison started CCI back in the mid-1980’s she welcomed people of different perspectives and was open to ideas that were sometimes in conflict. We are trying to stay with that philosophy, knowing that not all our ListServ members would agree with every perspective that is presented in our mailings.

As you know, George Patton used to say that “if everyone is thinking alike, then someone isn’t thinking”. This encapsulates the importance of diversity of thought which is essential to a substantive dialogue, especially on issues of War and Peace. We are trying to adhere to this approach for our informed and passionate audience who equally want peace. On that matter, I believe that we are all on the same page.

Sincerely, Krishen Mehta
CCI Director

“Getting It Wrong On Russia”
https://scottritter.substack.com/p/getting-it-wrong-on-russia

Dear CCI Friends,

Many CCI travelers who visited Russia after 2014 were fortunate to meet Dr. Vladimir Kozin while in Moscow.  Dr. Kozin was one of the “Russia experts” the CCI groups were exposed to before setting off on their individual treks to various parts of the country – for most of them their first ever experience of Russian culture, history and geopolitics from a Russian point of view.  Dr. Kozin’s extensive CV is available online and includes his membership in the Russian Academy of Military Science.

Speaking of the disappearance of most of the nuclear arms treaties agreed between Russia and the United States over the prior forty years, and of the expansion  of NATO to Russia’s borders, Dr. Kozin made the point that Russia was feeling decidedly insecure.  Further, he pointed out that if the security of one country made the country next door insecure, then the entire neighborhood should be nervous.  Oddly perhaps, this simple-enough truism was quite new to some in attendance, amounting to what an old friend used to call an authentic “BGO – a blinding glimpse of the obvious.”  Dr. Kozin went on to explain the need for a ‘security architecture’ for Europe that included Russia so that everyone could sleep peacefully at night.  It seemed obvious enough.

Or not.  A decade later the concept is still alien to many and as a result, a deadly, bloody, catastrophically destructive war is grinding on in Ukraine.  For anyone not yet lucky enough to be hit by a BGO on the subject, Dmitry Polyanskiy, Russia’s new Permanent Representative to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, the OSCE, in an interview with Glenn Diesen makes the same point.  It’s rather difficult to imagine an European organization advocating for security and cooperation with Russia in today’s atmosphere and Mr. Polyanskiy appears rather despondent.  Small wonder.  

https://glenndiesen.substack.com/p/dmitry-polyanskiy-peace-requires

Still on the subject of security, CCI  is taking note of the anniversary last week, on January 27,  of the lifting of the siege of Leningrad in 1944.  Nervousness was not the primary concern of Leningraders living or trying to live through the 872 days  of the siege – avoiding death via bombs, artillery shells or starvation, day-by-day, in real time, at the hands of the Germans, was.  Nearly one million of them perished. Trading that experience for an incoherent  case of the jitters such as the EU states are suffering today would have been a luxury.

Can there by any doubt the Russians deserve a seat at the table when European security is discussed?  

As always, your thoughts are greatly appreciated.

Sincerely,
Paula Day
The Center for Citizen Initiatives

Dear CCI Friends,

There are many in our world today who would like to characterize the ongoing conflict/war between Russia and Ukraine as a battle between good and evil, good guys versus bad guys, innocent victims versus mad aggressor.   Any deviation from that line brings down a rain of condemnation; one is either a Putin puppet or a proto-Nazi-globalist-apologist depending on the direction of the deviation.

This characterization of the drama reduces it to a simple Batman and Robin episode (or video game) where all will be well when the good guys win (finally!) and we can dust our hands off and move on.  That the conflict is in fact a tragedy involving a few truly malign actors, who may pay nothing for their sins, and many more expendable extras who have already paid with their lives, makes the conclusion  inevitable, the dictionary definition of tragedy – “a disastrous event, a calamity, having a sorrowful or disastrous conclusion.”

The following interview with Professor Richard Sakwa explores the deep and deeply entwined roots of Ukrainian and Russian history and culture and the relationship of both to Europe today.  Please give it your consideration.  It is a clear-eyed view of the rocky road to peace ahead.

“What Sort of Europe Do We Want After This War?”

https://glenndiesen.substack.com/

As always, your thoughts are greatly appreciated.

Sincerely,
The Center for Citizen Initiatives