Dear CCI Friends and Colleagues.
Last week we had intended to send you an article by Professor John Mearsheimer, America’s foremost advocate for an appreciation of ‘realpolitik’. Some call that a harsh and inhumane philosophy of “might makes right”; we suggest it refers to looking at the world honestly and not through the lens of any preferred bias.
We decided to hold off on that post until the NATO summit in Vilnius had concluded. We hoped a glimmer of a possibility for peace in Europe might emerge from the gathering. It was a forlorn hope, as it turns out, but a link to NATO’s official, 22-page summation of the proceedings is below for your assessment.
And so back to the subject of realpolitik.
In this article Professor Mearsheimer takes another hard look at the situation in Ukraine and he comes up with some hard, unpleasant assessments. We do not necessarily agree with all of his assumptions but his analysis of the facts on the ground is clear-eyed and insightful. A link to Glenn Greenwald’s interview with Professor Mearsheimer, on the same subject, is also below for those who prefer video.
To further expand on the subject we have included the video of another interview, this one with Colonel Douglas Macgregor – the well-respected military realist.
There’s a lot to take in here, folks, and as always, we look forward to your views. Are the opinions we are presenting here too dire?
The Center for Citizen Initiatives
“The Darkness Ahead: Where the Ukraine War is Headed”
June 23, 2023
By John J. Mearsheimer / John’s Substack
This paper examines the likely trajectory of the Ukraine war moving forward. I will address two main questions.
First, is a meaningful peace agreement possible? My answer is no. We are now in a war where both sides – Ukraine and the West on one side and Russia on the other – see each other as an existential threat that must be defeated. Given maximalist objectives all around, it is almost impossible to reach a workable peace treaty. Moreover, the two sides have irreconcilable differences regarding territory and Ukraine’s relationship with the West. The best possible outcome is a frozen conflict that could easily turn back into a hot war. The worst possible outcome is a nuclear war, which is unlikely but cannot be ruled out.
Second, which side is likely to win the war? Russia will ultimately win the war, although it will not decisively defeat Ukraine. In other words, it is not going to conquer all of Ukraine, which is necessary to achieve three of Moscow’s goals: overthrowing the regime, demilitarizing the country, and severing Kyiv’s security ties with the West. But it will end up annexing a large swath of Ukrainian territory, while turning Ukraine into a dysfunctional rump state. In other words, Russia will win an ugly victory.
Before I directly address these issues, three preliminary points are in order.
Additional Information:
NATO Summation of Proceedings (Vilnius, July 2023)
Glenn Greenwald’s Interview with Professor Mearsheimer
Klaus Bernpaintner’s Interview with Colonel Douglas Macgregor
