Dear CCI Friends and Colleagues,

A few weeks ago, when the world was transfixed with the Prigozhin affair, Vladimir Putin made a few statements in Moscow that should have gotten our attention. In short, he declared that there is no sovereign state of Ukraine that Russia is required, by law, to recognize.

Two things about V. Putin have become evident to anyone closely following the Russia-West relationship over the past couple of decades:

1. He rarely speaks frivolously.
2. He knows, and is careful to adhere to, international law. (This statement will anger those who insist Russia’s Special Military Operation in Ukraine is an illegal act of aggression. But it is always useful to recognize that whenever a claim of illegality is made, there is very often a coherent and persuasive counterclaim.)

Australian journalist John Helmer, who has been based in Moscow since 1989, reports on Mr. Putin’s recent statements below. The ramifications of the Russian position on Ukrainian sovereignty are provocative to say the least.

Please give the article your careful consideration and let us know what you think.

The Center for Citizen Initiatives

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Dances With Bears

“Putin Orders Reality Check – No Ukrainians Left On The Battlefield, No Sovereignty in Kiev”

June 24, 2023

By John Helmer / Dances With Bears

In brief statements issued late last week in Moscow – their significance missed in the western press — President Vladimir Putin ordered a reality check of Russia’s war strategy. He then  answered himself by declaring the war will be over when no Ukrainian army will be left on the battlefield, nor NATO weapons.  

The Foreign Ministry answered by pointing out that Russia does not recognize there is a legal Ukrainian state because the reality is that the mutual recognition treaty between Russia and the Ukraine was cancelled by Presidents Petro Poroshenko and Vladimir Zelensky in 2018 and 2019 ^[3].  

“We can conclude,” Putin said ^[4] at the Security Council meeting on Thursday morning,  “that they can certainly send in additional equipment, but the mobilisation reserve is not unlimited. And Ukraine’s Western allies really seem determined to fight with Russia to the last Ukrainian. At the same time, we must proceed from the fact that the enemy’s offensive potential has not been exhausted; they may have strategic reserves yet unused, and I ask you to keep this in mind when making fighting strategies. You need to proceed from reality.”

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Dear CCI Friends and Colleagues.

Last week we had intended to send you an article by Professor John Mearsheimer, America’s foremost advocate for an appreciation of ‘realpolitik’.  Some call that a harsh and inhumane philosophy of “might makes right”; we suggest it refers to looking at the world honestly and not through the lens of any preferred bias.

We decided to hold off on that post until the NATO summit in Vilnius had concluded.  We hoped a glimmer of a possibility for peace in Europe might emerge from the gathering.  It was a forlorn hope, as it turns out,  but a link to NATO’s official, 22-page summation of the proceedings is below for your assessment.

And so back to the subject of realpolitik. 

In this article Professor Mearsheimer takes another hard look at the situation in Ukraine and he comes up with some hard, unpleasant assessments.  We do not necessarily agree with all of his assumptions but his analysis of the facts on the ground is clear-eyed and insightful. A link to Glenn Greenwald’s interview with Professor Mearsheimer, on the same subject, is also below for those who prefer video.

To further expand on the subject we have included the video of another interview, this one with Colonel Douglas Macgregor – the well-respected military realist. 

There’s a lot to take in here, folks, and as always, we look forward to your views. Are the opinions we are presenting here too dire?

The Center for Citizen Initiatives

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John’s Substack

“The Darkness Ahead:  Where the Ukraine War is Headed”
June 23, 2023

By John J. Mearsheimer / John’s Substack

This paper examines the likely trajectory of the Ukraine war moving forward.  I will address two main questions.

First, is a meaningful peace agreement possible? My answer is no. We are now in a war where both sides – Ukraine and the West on one side and Russia on the other – see each other as an existential threat that must be defeated. Given maximalist objectives all around, it is almost impossible to reach a workable peace treaty. Moreover, the two sides have irreconcilable differences regarding territory and Ukraine’s relationship with the West. The best possible outcome is a frozen conflict that could easily turn back into a hot war. The worst possible outcome is a nuclear war, which is unlikely but cannot be ruled out.  

Second, which side is likely to win the war? Russia will ultimately win the war, although it will not decisively defeat Ukraine. In other words, it is not going to conquer all of Ukraine, which is necessary to achieve three of Moscow’s goals: overthrowing the regime, demilitarizing the country, and severing Kyiv’s security ties with the West. But it will end up annexing a large swath of Ukrainian territory, while turning Ukraine into a dysfunctional rump state. In other words, Russia will win an ugly victory.

Before I directly address these issues, three preliminary points are in order. 

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Additional Information:

NATO Summation of Proceedings (Vilnius, July 2023)

Glenn Greenwald’s Interview with Professor Mearsheimer

Klaus Bernpaintner’s Interview with Colonel Douglas Macgregor

Dear CCI Friends and Colleagues,

As the war in Ukraine continues unabated, and the West continues to take the position that Russia’s actions were ‘unprovoked’, it is important to consider the timeline to this war. In the communication below is a very useful summary put together by Joe Lauria, a distinguished journalist and historian. Joe outlines the history of this crisis going back to the end of the Second World War, and the events that have transpired since then. 

In addition to Joe’s timeline, we are also providing in this communication certain historical documents by US diplomats that clearly and unequivocally convey Russia’s deep concern about Ukraine’s accession into NATO and why that could lead to military conflict. 

Joe Lauria is editor-in-chief of Consortium News and a former U.N. correspondent for The Wall Street Journal, Boston Globe, and numerous other newspapers, including The Montreal Gazette and The Star of Johannesburg. He was an investigative reporter for the Sunday Times of London, a financial reporter for Bloomberg News and began his professional work for The New York Times. 

We would welcome any thoughts or suggestions you may have. 

Center for Citizen Initiatives

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ConsortiumNews.com

Ukraine Timeline Tells the Story

July 1, 2023
 Without historical context, buried by corporate media, it’s impossible to understand Ukraine. Historians will tell the story. But the Establishment hits back at journalists, like at CN, who try to tell it now.

By Joe Lauria
The way to prevent understanding of the Ukraine war is to suppress its history.

A cartoon version says the conflict began in February 2022 when Vladimir Putin woke up one morning and decided to invade Ukraine.

There was no other cause, according to this version, other than unprovoked, Russian aggression against an innocent country.

Please use this short, historical guide to share with people who still flip through the funny pages trying to figure out what’s going on in Ukraine.  

The mainstream account is like opening a novel in the middle of a book to read a random chapter as though it’s the beginning of the story.

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For more information click here:

Records of the Public Library of US Diplomacy

Dear CCI Friends and Colleagues, 

In the short video interview below, Ray McGovern joins Judge Napolitano to discuss his assessment of the “Pentagon Leaks”, possible motives and sources, as well as how this is reminiscent of a similar type of intelligence situation during the Vietnam War.

Please give it your consideration and let us know your thoughts on the subject. 

Center for Citizen Initiatives

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Dear CCI Friends and Colleagues, 

Several weeks ago CCI Board Member Krishen Mehta authored an article that explored why the Global South is not supporting the West in sanctioning Russia over the war in Ukraine.  We posted it on our website on February 23, and many of you wrote in response to express appreciation for his perspective.  Since then the article has been re-posted hundreds of times all over the globe.

In the video interview below, Krishen has expanded on his thesis and provided more detail on the view from the South.  Please give it your consideration and let us know your thoughts on the subject.  

The Center for Citizen Initiatives

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Why Much of the Global South
Is Not Supporting the War in Ukraine